9 January, 2024

Subject : “India and the Maldives : strategic re-appraisals.”

Since Maldives’ independence in 1965, India has maintained close ties with the archipelago. Obviously, India does not want to neglect the archipelago which is so close to Indian mainland. Thus, India has constantly reached out to support the Maldives and boost its economic viability. Indian tourists are among the top visitors to the islands and bring in substantial revenue.

2          Since some time, the Maldives have taken their distance from India and are re-orienting their relations with other countries. China is playing an increasing role on the Maldives scene. The archipelago has joined the Belt and Road Initiative.

3. The low-lying islands are particularly at risk of sea level rises. From Wikipedia :

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Maldives

“Tsunami impact

“Main article: Effect of the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake on the Maldives

“The tsunami that struck Malé on 26 December 2004. Photo taken by Sofwathulla Mohamed while standing on his doorstep. His apartment was entirely washed out damaging all his belongings.

“On 26 December 2004, following the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake, the Maldives were devastated by a tsunami. Only nine islands were reported to have escaped any flooding,^[53][54] while fifty-seven islands faced serious damage to critical infrastructure, fourteen islands had to be totally evacuated, and six islands were destroyed. A further twenty-one resort islands were forced to close because of serious damage. The total damage was estimated at more than US$400 million, or some 62% of the GDP.^[55][56] 102 Maldivians and 6 foreigners reportedly died in the tsunami.^[57] The destructive impact of the waves on the low-lying islands was mitigated by the fact there was no continental shelf or land mass upon which the waves could gain height. The tallest waves were reported to be 14 feet (4.3 m) high.^[58]”

Full acknowledgements are made to the authors, publishers and rights-holders.

4. India has continued to provide substantial aid to the Maldives.

January 2024.

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/india-maldives-lakshadweep-row-bilateral-relations-tourism-trade-defence-security-health-2485888-2024-01-08 

“From defence to health, how India has played Maldives' perfect neighbour for decades”

“The biggest project India is presently carrying out in the Maldives is the Greater Male Connectivity Project in which a 6.74 km-long bridge will connect the Maldivian capital Male with three adjoining islands of Villingli, Gulhifalhu and Thilafushi, reducing travel time. For this, India has sanctioned USD 500 million. 

“In 2023, India topped the chart in sending the largest number of tourists to the Maldives (2,09,198), with around 11.8 per cent market share. In fact, since 2018, Indians have been the largest source of tourist arrivals. From being fifth in the list, India has now been at the pole position since 2020.”  

Full acknowledgements are made to the authors, publishers and rights-holders.  

5. As the Maldives have opted to look beyond her, India should re-assess her relations with the archipelago. All funding and investments in the archipelago are unlikely to bring strategic advantages to India, in the circumstances. Of course, moving out will create a vacuum into which another country might move. But, this has become quite unavoidable.

6. With the rise in sea levels, the archipelago is at serious existential risks.

An underwater cabinet meeting was held in the Maldives in October 2009.

“Underwater Cabinet Meeting in the Maldives”

https://sos.noaa.gov/education/phenomenon-based-learning/underwater-cabinet-meeting/  

7. The Greater Male 6.74 km bridge alone will cost about 41 billion Indian rupees. Is it wise to spend such amounts on a territory whose physical viability is under serious questioning ? One Indian concern is that moving out of the scene will enable other powerful actors to move in. Yet, Indians will be well advised to review the question of their presence and spending in the Maldives in more pragmatic ways. In the Maldives there is a clear policy reorientation away from India.
8.  
9. The air base in Agaléga island (part of Mauritius) will be of help to the Indian military, in both sea and air operations. India needs to set up a base in Djibouti, which already has a Chinese base and an American one.

Soman Ragavan

Mauritius (Indian Ocean)

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