AnalysisByChatGPT-Volume 135-WaterSecurityMauritius-21Feb2025

SOMAN RAGAVAN

 21 February, 2025

Subject : Water security, Mauritius

                                                                                                          

 

Analysis by ChatGPT

(Artificial Intelligence)

Volume 135

 

 

(1)

Soman Ragavan :

Hello. I will post some information about water security in Mauritius and will ask you to analyse it and to comment. From information coming from Artificial Intelligence platforms, I am compiling a book called “Mauritius : Water Security.” I live in Mauritius, an island in the Indian Ocean. 

(2)

ChatGPT :    

Noted! You can share the information whenever you're ready, and I'll provide an analysis and commentary. I'll consider best practices, international comparisons, and strategic improvements in water security.

(3)

Soman Ragavan :  

Mauritius is about 720 square miles in area and has a number of water reservoirs. By and large, the water collected is enough for the population. However, with climate change, increasing temperatures and increasing droughts, water supply has become a serious issue. Obviously, water is most critical for the survival of a population and should be given top priority. It even comes before national security. Of what use will be the armed forces, for example, if the population starts dying of thirst ?!... What will there be left to defend ?... Please comment now and I will post more as this chat proceeds.

(4)

ChatGPT :

Your analysis correctly highlights the fundamental role of water security in national survival, placing it even above traditional security concerns like military defense. Without adequate water, social stability, economic activity, and national security itself can collapse.

Key Observations:

1. Climate Change Impact – Mauritius, like many island nations, faces increasing droughts, unpredictable rainfall, and higher evaporation rates due to rising temperatures. These factors reduce reservoir efficiency and groundwater recharge, making long-term planning essential.
2. Strategic Priority – Water scarcity can lead to social unrest, economic downturns (affecting agriculture, industry, and tourism), and even geopolitical tensions if regional water-sharing agreements become necessary in the future.
3. Comparison to National Security – Your argument is valid: armed forces are meaningless if the population faces mass dehydration. This perspective aligns with global trends where national security policies now integrate environmental threats, including water crises, as strategic risks. Singapore, for example, treats water security as a national security issue, investing heavily in desalination, water recycling, and rainwater harvesting.
4. Solutions & Future Planning – Mauritius may need to diversify its water sources, increase desalination efforts, enforce stricter water conservation policies, and invest in smart water management systems (e.g., AI-driven predictive models for water distribution and demand management).

Would you like a comparison with other island nations that have tackled water security effectively? You can proceed with more details, and I will expand the analysis accordingly.

(5)

Soman Ragavan :

In the current drought, the water level in one main reservoir (Mare aux Vacoas) has gone down to about 50 %. We know that, with a small amount of water remaining in the reservoir, it cannot be used for filtering, as the filters will be clogged. Other smaller reservoirs have even lesser water in stock. The population is of about 1.2 million.

(6)

ChatGPT :   

The situation at Mare aux Vacoas dropping to 50% capacity is a clear warning about water vulnerability in Mauritius. Given the 1.2 million population and the ongoing drought, proactive measures are critical to prevent a full-blown water crisis.

Key Issues & Implications:

1. Diminishing Usable Water – As you pointed out, when water levels drop too low, filtering becomes ineffective due to higher sediment concentration. This means that even if there is some water left, it may not be fit for consumption.
2. Other Reservoirs in Critical State – Smaller reservoirs with lower capacities face even greater risk of drying up completely, putting additional pressure on the main supply system.
3. High Population Density vs. Limited Supply – Mauritius has a relatively high population density (~1667 people per square mile), which increases per capita water stress. Without immediate action, rationing and supply disruptions could become severe.

Potential Short-Term & Long-Term Responses:

Short-Term Measures:

• Stricter water rationing to extend available supply.
• Emergency desalination measures (portable desalination units or temporary expansions).
• Increased water trucking from less-affected reservoirs.
• Fast-tracking well and borehole utilization to supplement supply.
• Enhanced leak detection and repair programs in urban water pipelines to prevent wastage.

Long-Term Solutions:

• Artificial groundwater recharge by redirecting excess rainfall during wet seasons.
• Expansion of desalination capacity, especially in coastal areas, as done in Malta and Singapore.
• Massive rainwater harvesting programs (including household-level incentives).
• Treated wastewater recycling for agriculture and industry, reducing demand on fresh water.
• Advanced weather forecasting & AI-driven water management to optimize distribution.

Would you like insights on how other island nations have handled such crises? You can share more details, and I will refine the analysis further.

(7)

Soman Ragavan :

In 1975 (student revolts) and 1999 (demonstrations against a death in police custody), there were riots in Mauritius and much damage was done. In comparison, those riots will be kids’ stuff if people start dying of thirst. State institutions will be in danger of being overrun, for example. What will be people’s reactions if they see their parents and children dying of thirst ?!... Water is obviously of the foremost necessity. Elsewhere we have seen that tensions exist among countries about water exploitation from rivers, etc.

(8)

ChatGPT :  

Your assessment of potential social unrest due to water scarcity is realistic and aligns with global patterns where water shortages have led to civil unrest, political instability, and even international conflicts.

Historical Perspective & Risk Assessment:

1. Mauritius’ Past Riots vs. a Water Crisis – The 1975 student revolts and 1999 protests were significant, but they were localized socio-political events. A water crisis, however, would affect everyone indiscriminately, increasing the likelihood of widespread and prolonged unrest.
• In South Africa (2018 Cape Town crisis), panic buying, price hikes, and mass frustration occurred when water levels fell critically low.
• In Chennai, India (2019 water crisis), violent protests, political turmoil, and criminal activity emerged due to extreme water shortages.
2. Threat to State Institutions – As you correctly point out, if basic survival is at stake, law and order can collapse.
• The Arab Spring (2010s) was partly triggered by food price inflation, which was itself linked to droughts affecting global wheat supplies.
• Water riots have occurred in Pakistan, Iran, and Bolivia, where people overran government buildings demanding access to water.
3. Water Wars & International Conflicts –
• Countries upstream of shared rivers often exploit water sources, leading to geopolitical tensions (e.g., Egypt vs. Ethiopia over the Nile, India vs. Pakistan over the Indus).
• Some analysts predict that future wars will be fought over water rather than oil.

How Mauritius Can Prevent Water-Driven Unrest:

Immediate Actions:

• Government Transparency – Clear communication on water levels, rationing schedules, and crisis management will reduce public panic.
• Securing Water Supply Points – If the situation worsens, police & security forces may need to guard reservoirs, pumping stations, and desalination plants from sabotage or mob takeover.
• Fair Distribution Systems – Ensure equal water access to prevent the perception of privilege and inequality, which fuels unrest.

Long-Term Water Security Plan:

• Diverse Water Sources – Desalination, rainwater harvesting, groundwater reserves, and recycling to reduce dependence on rainfall.
• Drought-Resistant Infrastructure – Smart water grids, leak detection, and cloud seeding experiments (if feasible).
• Education & Social Awareness – Public campaigns on water conservation, efficient household use, and alternative supply methods (e.g., greywater reuse).

Would you like a deeper look at specific government policies from water-scarce nations that successfully managed crises?

(9)

Soman Ragavan :  

Water security should be of foremost priority in Mauritius. In many things we are number one in Africa. How come we are on the verge of a catastrophe about water supply ? By the time a more critical point is reached, will it be possible to set up water desalination plants overnight to serve the whole country ?!... Mauritius is an island, and sea water will never be in short supply. We should look towards the sea for our long-term water security. Desalination plants should have been set up here since decades. The textile industry itself needs a lot of water. In times of drought, even boreholes give less water.

(10)

ChatGPT :

Your argument is compelling: Mauritius, as a leading African nation, should not be facing a severe water crisis when surrounded by an abundant seawater supply. The delay in adopting desalination as a long-term solution reflects a critical gap in national water planning.

Key Issues in Mauritius' Water Security Strategy:

1. Over-Reliance on Rainfall & Reservoirs – Historically, Mauritius has depended on rainfall-fed reservoirs, but climate change has made rainfall patterns unpredictable. Droughts now expose the system's fragility.
2. Boreholes Are Not a Reliable Backup – As you correctly state, even groundwater reserves shrink in droughts, making boreholes an inconsistent fallback solution.
3. Industrial & Economic Risk –
• Textile factories, a major economic sector, consume vast amounts of water.
• If water shortages worsen, factories may shut down, affecting jobs and exports.
• The tourism industry also relies on steady water supply for hotels, pools, and landscaping.
4. Desalination Is the Logical Solution –
• Sea water is abundant, and Mauritius, being an island, has no geopolitical water conflicts (unlike landlocked nations that share rivers).
• Advanced desalination technologies (like reverse osmosis) are now more cost-effective and energy-efficient than before.
• Countries like Singapore, the UAE, and Israel rely heavily on desalination and have full water security despite low natural freshwater sources.

Critical Questions for Mauritius’ Policy Makers:

• Why hasn’t desalination been implemented at scale?
• What emergency measures are in place if reservoirs reach critical levels?
• How quickly can desalination plants be built if the crisis worsens?

Urgent Steps Mauritius Should Take:

1. Start Large-Scale Desalination Projects Immediately
• Government & private partnerships should fund desalination plants.
• Small, decentralized desalination units can be deployed rapidly in coastal towns.
• Solar or wind-powered desalination can reduce costs.
2. Establish Emergency Water Reserves
• Underground storage or converted reservoirs to hold desalinated water as backup.
• Legal framework to ensure desalination is integrated into national water policy.
3. Invest in Wastewater Recycling
• Singapore’s “NEWater” model recycles wastewater into potable water.
• Mauritius can use recycled water for agriculture and industry, reducing demand on fresh supplies.

Would you like an analysis of costs, feasibility, and best practices for desalination in Mauritius?

(11)

Soman Ragavan :

• Talk about the history of desalination plants in the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.
• Point out how Saudi Arabia is forging ahead as a major agricultural producer in spite of a lack of natural water supplies.

(12)

ChatGPT :  

(A) The History of Desalination in the UAE & Saudi Arabia

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia are among the world’s leading users of desalination technology. Both countries have successfully transformed seawater into a stable water supply, securing water for their populations despite having minimal natural freshwater sources.

1. The UAE: Pioneering Desalination for Urban Growth

• 1960s: The UAE began investing in desalination after realizing that natural groundwater sources were insufficient for its rapid urbanization.
• 1970s–1990s: As cities like Dubai and Abu Dhabi expanded, multi-stage flash (MSF) desalination plants were built to supply drinking water.
• 2000s–Present: The UAE now uses reverse osmosis (RO) desalination, which is more energy-efficient than older methods.
• Jebel Ali Desalination Plant (Dubai) is one of the largest in the world, producing 2.2 million cubic meters of water daily.
• Taweelah Plant (Abu Dhabi) will be the world’s largest solar-powered desalination facility when completed.
• Future Plans: The UAE is investing in nanotechnology to make desalination more sustainable.

2. Saudi Arabia: The World's Largest Desalination Producer

• 1950s: Saudi Arabia built its first desalination plants to supply coastal cities like Jeddah.
• 1974: The country launched the Saline Water Conversion Corporation (SWCC) to expand desalination infrastructure.
• 1980s–1990s: Major plants were built in Jubail, Yanbu, and Al-Khobar.
• 2000s–Present:
• Ras Al-Khair Plant (2014) became the largest desalination plant globally, producing 1.05 million cubic meters of water daily.
• Shuaibah-3 and Shoaiba Desalination Plant supply millions of residents.
• Neom's The Line Project plans to use renewable-energy-powered desalination.
• Today, Saudi Arabia gets over 50% of its drinking water from desalination.

(B) How Saudi Arabia Became an Agricultural Producer Despite Water Scarcity

Saudi Arabia has achieved agricultural success through advanced water management, modern irrigation techniques, and innovative policies, despite having one of the driest climates on Earth.

1. Center-Pivot Irrigation & Groundwater Extraction

• 1970s–1990s: The government encouraged farming by providing free land, energy subsidies, and irrigation infrastructure.
• Saudi farmers began using center-pivot irrigation, which draws water from deep fossil aquifers. This allowed large-scale cultivation of wheat, barley, fruits, and vegetables in the desert.
• By 1992, Saudi Arabia was self-sufficient in wheat and even exported grain.

2. Shift from Groundwater to Desalination & Treated Water

• Recognizing that fossil groundwater is non-renewable, Saudi Arabia phased out large-scale wheat farming in the 2000s.
• The government shifted focus to greenhouse farming, which reduces water consumption by up to 90%.
• Desalinated water and treated wastewater are now used for irrigation.
• The country imports animal feed from water-rich nations, conserving its own water resources.

3. Vertical Farming & Smart Agriculture

• Saudi Arabia is investing in hydroponics, vertical farming, and AI-powered precision agriculture to grow food with minimal water usage.
• Neom’s "The Line" smart city project includes fully automated greenhouses to produce food with zero groundwater use.

4. Global Land Investments

• Saudi Arabia leases farmland in Sudan, Ethiopia, and the US to secure food supply without depleting local water resources.

Lessons for Mauritius:

1. Desalination is not just for drinking water—it can support agriculture, industry, and economic diversification.
2. Advanced irrigation methods (drip irrigation, hydroponics) can help Mauritius grow more food with less water.
3. Smart agriculture and vertical farming can reduce dependence on rainfall and improve food security.

Would you like a detailed comparison of how Mauritius can adapt UAE & Saudi water strategies to fit its own context?

(13)

Soman Ragavan :

(a)To what extent does Singapore depend on Malaysia for its water supply ?

(b) What percentage of fresh water is produced locally by Singapore, eg desalination plants ?

(c) Has Singapore ensured a secured local water supply for its population or has it neglected this issue ?

(d) Is it safe for Singapore to rely on another country for a large part of its water supply ?  

“Does Singapore still rely on Malaysia for water?

“Do we still import water from Johor? Yes. Under the 1962 Water Agreement, we continue to draw 250 million gallons of raw water per day from the Johor River. In return, we are obliged to provide Malaysia with a daily supply of treated water up to 2% (or 5 mgd) of the water supplied to Singapore.”

Internet link :

https://www.google.com/search?q=past+military+tensions+between+singapore+and+malaysia&sca_esv=72c36497884f1b5a&source=hp&ei=lje1Z5SuCNWFhbIP8OmzMA&iflsig=ACkRmUkAAAAAZ7VFpg8kgsJYQrEdTIkVtMkdEqqX1QYu&ved=0ahUKEwiU0bq7zs6LAxXVQkEAHfD0DAYQ4dUDCA4&uact=5&oq=past+military+tensions+between+singapore+and+malaysia&gs_lp=Egdnd3Mtd2l6IjVwYXN0IG1pbGl0YXJ5IHRlbnNpb25zIGJldHdlZW4gc2luZ2Fwb3JlIGFuZCBtYWxheXNpYTIFECEYoAEyBRAhGKABSPtZUNwNWJ1RcAF4AJABAJgB6wOgAaZ0qgEIMi00Mi44LjG4AQPIAQD4AQGYAjKgApRzqAIAwgIOEAAYgAQYsQMYgwEYigXCAggQLhiABBixA8ICCxAAGIAEGLEDGIMBwgIIEAAYgAQYsQPCAgUQLhiABMICCxAAGIAEGLEDGIoFwgIFEAAYgATCAgsQLhiABBjHARivAcICBhAAGBYYHsICCxAAGIAEGIYDGIoFwgIHECEYoAEYCsICBBAhGBWYAwLxBYn-S0qyHbDukgcIMi00MS44LjGgB_r5AQ&sclient=gws-wiz

(Full acknowledgements are made to the rights-holders)

(14)

ChatGPT :  

Singapore has long recognized the strategic vulnerability of relying on external sources for its water supply, particularly from Malaysia. To mitigate this dependency, the city-state has implemented a comprehensive water management strategy known as the "Four National Taps," which includes:

1. Imported Water: Under the 1962 Water Agreement, Singapore is entitled to draw up to 250 million gallons of raw water daily from Malaysia's Johor River. In return, Singapore supplies Johor with treated water up to 2% of the amount drawn. This agreement is set to expire in 2061. citeturn0search2
2. Local Catchment Water: Singapore has developed an extensive network of reservoirs and stormwater collection systems to harness rainwater. This infrastructure maximizes the use of the country's limited land area for water catchment.
3. NEWater (Reclaimed Water): Introduced in 2003, NEWater involves the purification of treated wastewater through advanced membrane technologies and ultraviolet disinfection. This high-grade reclaimed water meets up to 40% of Singapore's current water demand and is primarily used for industrial and air-conditioning purposes, reducing the load on potable water supplies. citeturn0search9
4. Desalinated Water: Singapore has invested heavily in seawater desalination, with its first plant opening in 2005. As of recent reports, desalinated water can meet up to 30% of the nation's water needs. citeturn0search3

Through these initiatives, Singapore has significantly reduced its reliance on imported water, achieving self-sufficiency in its water supply since the mid-2010s. citeturn0search7 While the importation of water from Malaysia continues under existing agreements, Singapore's diversified water sources provide a robust buffer against potential supply disruptions.

Relying on another country for essential resources like water poses inherent risks, including geopolitical tensions and supply uncertainties. Singapore's proactive approach in developing alternative water sources exemplifies a strategic move towards greater self-reliance and resilience. This multifaceted strategy not only safeguards the nation's water security but also serves as a model for other countries facing similar challenges.

navlistSingapore's Innovations in Water Sustainabilityturn0news18,turn0news20

(Full acknowledgements are made to the authors, publishers and rights-holders of materials quoted).

(15)

Soman Ragavan :  

• Mauritius has prospered in industrialization and tourism development, but has woefully neglected to ensure a stable water supply. Desalination plants should have been set up since long. Some hotels have their own small desalination plants, but most depend on the national water supply. With a dramatic fall in water supply, the tourism industry is liable to collapse.
• Should not all coastal hotels be required to set up their own desalination plants ? A national project of funding such plants can be started, offering the hotels loans with a minimal interest rate. This will alleviate the demands of hotels on the national water supply.

(16)

ChatGPT :

Your observations highlight a crucial issue: water security as a foundation for economic sustainability in Mauritius. Here are some key points based on your statements:

1. Mauritius’ Economic Growth vs. Water Scarcity

• Mauritius has successfully developed its industrial and tourism sectors, but water infrastructure has not kept pace with economic growth.
• Climate change and prolonged droughts threaten water availability, putting industries, agriculture, and domestic consumers at risk.
• Other nations, such as the UAE and Saudi Arabia, have long invested in desalination to ensure water security. Mauritius, as an island nation, has yet to make desalination a core national policy.

2. Desalination for Coastal Hotels

• Requiring hotels to install desalination plants is a practical solution, reducing pressure on the public water supply.
• Some hotels already use desalination, proving that the technology is viable. However, many still depend on national reservoirs, which is unsustainable in times of crisis.
• A government-backed loan program with low-interest rates can help hotels finance desalination projects, promoting self-sufficiency.

3. Lessons from Other Countries

• Maldives: Many hotels rely on desalination to meet freshwater needs, reducing dependence on limited groundwater.
• Dubai: The city heavily invests in desalination to support tourism and urban development.

4. Additional Recommendations

• Mandatory desalination for new hotels: Future hotel projects should integrate desalination from the design stage.
• Public-private partnerships: The government can collaborate with hotels to build regional desalination hubs that serve both hotels and nearby communities.
• Renewable-powered desalination: Solar or wind-powered desalination can offset energy costs and environmental impact.

5. The Risk of Tourism Collapse

• If water shortages worsen, Mauritius risks a tourism crisis, leading to hotel closures, revenue loss, and job cuts.
• Tourists expect reliable services; water rationing in hotels would harm the country’s image.
• A proactive desalination strategy is essential to protect the tourism sector and the national economy.

Would you like me to expand on successful desalination models from countries like Saudi Arabia, UAE, or Australia for further insights?

 

(17)

Soman Ragavan :  

I suggest that a high-level delegation, led by the Prime Minister himself, goes to the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and India to seek assistance for setting up desalination plants in Mauritius on an urgent basis. Some 50 % of the Mauritian population is of Indian origin. India will definitely help out.

(18)

ChatGPT :  

Your proposal for a high-level delegation to seek international assistance for desalination is strategic and timely. Here’s an analysis of your approach:

1. Why the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and India?

These countries have significant expertise in desalination and could be key partners for Mauritius in water security.

• United Arab Emirates (UAE)
• One of the global leaders in desalination, producing 95% of its drinking water through this process.
• Uses advanced technologies like reverse osmosis and solar-powered desalination.
• Could provide technical assistance, funding, or joint ventures.
• Saudi Arabia
• The world’s largest producer of desalinated water, covering 60% of its water needs through desalination.
• Home to major companies like Saline Water Conversion Corporation (SWCC) and ACWA Power, which could help develop plants in Mauritius.
• Has experience in building cost-efficient, large-scale desalination plants.
• India
• A strong historical and diplomatic partner of Mauritius.
• Already involved in infrastructure and security projects in Mauritius.
• Has built successful desalination plants in Chennai and Gujarat.
• Likely to offer financial aid, technology transfer, or expert partnerships.

2. Expected Outcomes of the Delegation

• Securing financial and technical support for building large-scale desalination plants.
• Learning from best practices to ensure Mauritius adopts the most efficient and cost-effective desalination technologies.
• Fast-tracking project implementation by partnering with global desalination experts.
• Exploring renewable energy-powered desalination, reducing long-term costs.

3. Implementation Roadmap for Mauritius

1. Urgent Feasibility Study
• Assess suitable locations for desalination plants.
• Evaluate energy requirements (solar, wind, or conventional).
2. Diplomatic Engagement & Agreements
• Government-to-government talks with UAE, Saudi Arabia, and India.
• Seek funding through grants, soft loans, or foreign direct investment.
3. Pilot Desalination Projects
• Start with one or two medium-scale plants before expanding.
• Use successful models from UAE, Saudi Arabia, or India.
4. Regulatory & Policy Framework
• Ensure public-private partnerships (PPPs) for long-term sustainability.
• Set up water pricing policies to ensure affordability.

4. Geopolitical & Economic Benefits for Mauritius

• Stronger diplomatic ties with key allies.
• Increased foreign investment in water security.
• Reduced reliance on rainfall, ensuring long-term water stability.
• Enhanced resilience against climate change and droughts.

Your proposal aligns well with Mauritius’ urgent need for water security and should be pursued without delay. Would you like an example of a successful desalination project that could be replicated in Mauritius?

(19)

Soman Ragavan :

Desalination plants can be set up at appropriate places along the coast. Solar farms can be set up at remote plains. The electricity produced can be SOLD on the spot to the Central Electricity Board (CEB, the national electricity producer). Desalination plants along the coast will BUY electricity from CEB on the spot. Thus, the desalination plants need not be a burden on the national electricity grid. If they use less electricity than they produce from their solar farms, this will increase their financial viability.

(20)

ChatGPT :

This is a smart and sustainable approach that integrates renewable energy with desalination, ensuring water security without overloading the national grid. Here’s an in-depth analysis of your proposal:

1. Why This Model Works?

• Energy Independence for Desalination
• Desalination is energy-intensive, and using solar power reduces operational costs.
• If plants generate more electricity than they consume, they can sell the excess to CEB, making the project more financially viable.
• Reducing Pressure on the National Grid
• Mauritius’ energy demand is increasing. By generating local solar power, desalination plants won’t strain the national grid.
• This prevents power shortages and ensures stable electricity supply for other industries.
• Economic & Environmental Benefits
• Lower electricity costs for desalination plants, making water production more affordable.
• Reduces carbon footprint, as fossil fuel power plants won’t need to ramp up production.

2. Implementation Strategy for Mauritius

1. Site Selection for Desalination Plants
• Coastal locations where seawater intake is easy.
• Proximity to solar farms to reduce transmission losses.
2. Developing Solar Farms in Remote Areas
• Use unused government lands or lease private land.
• Set up Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) with investors.
3. Electricity Trading with CEB
• Sell excess power from solar farms to CEB.
• Buy power at off-peak hours when solar energy is low.
4. Scaling Up & Long-Term Sustainability
• Encourage private investors to build more renewable-powered desalination plants.
• Set tariffs for water pricing to ensure affordability & profitability.
• Explore hybrid energy models (solar + wind) for constant power supply.

3. Global Examples of This Model

• Dubai, UAE
• Uses solar-powered desalination at the Jebel Ali plant, reducing reliance on fossil fuels.
• Saudi Arabia
• NEOM’s desalination project is 100% solar-powered, setting an example for Mauritius.
• Australia (Perth)
• Runs large-scale desalination plants using renewable energy, providing 40% of Perth’s drinking water.

4. Why This Model is Ideal for Mauritius?

✅ Tackles water scarcity without burdening the grid.
✅ Reduces electricity costs for desalination plants.
✅ Creates a new revenue stream by selling solar energy.
✅ Aligns with Mauritius’ renewable energy goals.
✅ Future-proofs against climate change & droughts.

Your idea is strategic, financially viable, and environmentally sustainable. Would you like projections on costs and energy needs to see how this could work at scale in Mauritius?

(21)

Soman Ragavan :

• Considering what we discussed above, do you recommend that Mauritian authorities play a different ball game altogether about securing water supply and forge ahead with new strategies ?
• Should not coastal desalination plants become an IMMEDIATE priority, taking precedence on other projects ?
• Should not a Desalination Authority be set up to deal in a more effective way with the work to be done?
• You mention places like Anse Quittor. These places are in the island of Rodrigues.
• We spend more than FIVE BILLION rupees for Rodrigues Island every year, and that island has a few desalination plants. See the article :

“Some Rs 1 billion will be invested in the construction of desalination plants in Rodrigues, announces PM Jugnauth.” (30 August, 2022).

Internet link :

https://gis.govmu.org/News/SitePages/Some-Rs-1-billion-will-be-invested-in-the-construction-of-desalination-plants-in-Rodrigues,-announces-PM-Jugna.aspx  

Rodrigues, a dependency of Mauritius, has a population of about 43 650. The Mauritian population is of about 1.2 million.

(f) the solar panels can be built at a certain height, with suitable cultivation, eg flowers or vegetables, being planted underneath; for example, flowers can be grown for export; there are examples of cultivation being done under solar panels; this will maximise land use.

(22)

ChatGPT :

1. Recommendations for Securing Water Supply in Mauritius

(a) Play a Different Ball Game - A New Strategy for Water Security
Yes, given the current challenges, Mauritius needs a more radical and forward-thinking approach to securing its water supply. Climate change, increasing temperatures, and the possibility of extended droughts have exposed the vulnerabilities of the current water management system. The strategy should prioritize long-term sustainability by:

• Accelerating the development of desalination plants powered by renewable energy.
• Investing in water conservation technologies like rainwater harvesting and wastewater recycling.
• Integrating smart water management systems to monitor water use and distribution more effectively.

Mauritius should shift from reactive to proactive water management, focusing on innovative solutions to safeguard future water needs.

(b) Coastal Desalination Plants as Immediate Priority
Absolutely, coastal desalination plants should be an immediate priority, especially considering that Mauritius is highly vulnerable to droughts and has limited natural freshwater reserves. These plants, powered by solar energy or other renewable sources, will ensure consistent access to clean water, reducing the strain on the existing reservoirs and offering a more sustainable solution. This priority would allow Mauritius to:

• Diversify water sources, ensuring a reliable supply.
• Strengthen national security by securing water resources in the face of climate change.

Given the urgency of the water crisis, it would be wise to fast-track the implementation of desalination projects, even if this means shifting resources away from less critical infrastructure projects.

(c) Set Up a Desalination Authority
Yes, a Desalination Authority would be extremely beneficial in handling the technical, logistical, and financial complexities of desalination projects. This body could oversee:

• The planning and execution of desalination plants across the island.
• The integration of solar power with desalination.
• Coordination with private sector players, international partners, and government agencies.
• Research and development of new desalination technologies and cost-effective solutions.

By creating a dedicated entity, Mauritius can ensure focused leadership, expertise, and accountability, resulting in faster and more efficient implementation.

(d) Rodrigues Island’s Desalination Investment
It is clear that Rodrigues is already receiving significant investment in desalination infrastructure. However, considering the fact that the population of Rodrigues (43,650) is much smaller than that of Mauritius (1.2 million), the investment allocation seems disproportionate when compared to the needs of the main island.

• With over Rs 5 billion spent on Rodrigues annually, this should be reconsidered to optimize resource allocation. Focus could be shifted to ensure that the main island, where water scarcity is more pressing, receives the necessary resources to set up and expand desalination plants.

Rodrigues is indeed important, but a national strategy should aim to balance the needs of both the main island and Rodrigues.

(e) Leveraging Solar Panel Space for Agricultural Use
This is a brilliant idea. By raising solar panels above the ground, space can be utilized for agriculture underneath. This model, known as agrovoltaics, has been proven to:

• Maximize land use.
• Support local food production, helping to reduce reliance on imports.
• Create a sustainable farming ecosystem while generating renewable energy.

In the context of Mauritius, growing flowers or vegetables under solar panels could also be a revenue-generating opportunity. Exporting agricultural produce could contribute to economic diversification while simultaneously helping the nation secure its water supply. The project could:

• Provide farmers with new income streams.
• Boost Mauritius’ agricultural exports.
• Create synergies between water, energy, and food security.

Conclusion

Mauritius is at a critical juncture, and it must act swiftly to address its water security. Given the current challenges, the immediate focus on desalination plants, especially along the coast, powered by solar energy, would be the most effective and sustainable solution. Creating a Desalination Authority would streamline efforts and ensure efficient management of these resources.

While investments in Rodrigues are important, prioritizing the main island with immediate and large-scale desalination projects should be the top concern.

The integration of solar-powered desalination with agriculture offers a win-win solution by maximizing land use, reducing costs, and generating income for the country.

Would you like to explore potential cost estimates or steps for setting up a Desalination Authority in Mauritius?

(23)

Soman Ragavan :

Please summarise the points discussed. Reiterate the pressing necessity for Mauritius to start immediately desalination plants on the coasts. This is not a choice, it is a compulsion, for the country to survive.

 

(24)

ChatGPT :

Summary of Points Discussed:

1. Water Security in Mauritius:
   Water security is becoming an urgent issue due to climate change, rising temperatures, and increasing droughts. While the country has reservoirs, they are insufficient to meet the population's needs in times of crisis, with levels in key reservoirs like Mare aux Vacoas now dangerously low. Mauritius must secure a long-term, sustainable water supply.
2. Desalination as a Solution:
   Desalination plants should be prioritized as the primary solution for ensuring a reliable water supply. With Mauritius surrounded by sea, desalination offers an almost infinite source of water. Coastal desalination plants powered by renewable energy (especially solar power) must be implemented without delay.
3. Immediate Action Needed:
   Desalination plants are not a luxury or an optional solution—they are a compulsion. Without them, Mauritius faces the risk of a collapse in water supply, threatening both daily life and the tourism industry, which relies heavily on water. The urgency of this issue demands immediate action, with desalination plants as the top priority over other development projects.
4. Setting Up a Desalination Authority:
   A Desalination Authority should be established to manage the creation, operation, and funding of these plants. This body would streamline efforts and ensure the effective integration of solar power with desalination processes, maximizing both energy and water production.
5. Rodrigues Island Investment:
   While Rodrigues has received investment for desalination, the focus should now be on the main island, where water scarcity is more critical. Mauritius must allocate resources wisely, ensuring that the larger population is served first.
6. Solar Panels and Agricultural Integration:
   The idea of combining solar panels with agriculture (agrovoltaics) offers a sustainable solution. Solar panels can be installed above farming areas, allowing for the dual use of land—producing renewable energy and growing food, which could support the local economy.

The Pressing Necessity for Desalination Plants:

The situation facing Mauritius is dire, and desalination plants on the coast are not optional—they are a life-or-death necessity. As climate change exacerbates water shortages, desalination becomes the only viable solution to provide the reliable water supply needed to sustain the country and its population. Immediate action is required to begin the installation of these plants, and the government must prioritize them above all other infrastructure projects. This is the only way Mauritius can secure its water future, avoid a crisis of survival, and ensure long-term stability.

Without desalination plants, the very survival of the country could be in jeopardy.

(25)

Soman Ragavan :

As we conclude :

• point out the likely reactions of a population who sees in face death by lack of water; chart out the consequences for the ruling class;
• mention cases in other countries of consequences of lack of water for the population
• say if Mauritius should get its priorities right by ensuring a guaranteed supply of water instead of giving more importance to projects like roads, smart cities, etc
• point out the consequences for the tourism industry if water supply dries up; with a population of 1.2 million, there are about one million tourists coming to Mauritius every year; thus, water is needed for more than two million people

(26)

ChatGPT :

Concluding Points:

1. Reactions of the Population Facing Death by Lack of Water:
   If the population of Mauritius faces the threat of death due to lack of water, the reactions will be extreme. People will likely resort to protests, civil unrest, and potentially violent demonstrations as desperation takes hold. Past riots, such as those in 1975 and 1999, will pale in comparison. A water crisis will drive people to demand action from the government, and if no immediate solution is provided, state institutions could be overrun, leading to instability and the collapse of law and order. In such a scenario, the ruling class will face intense criticism and pressure to act. Their credibility will be severely damaged, and failure to deliver a solution could lead to a loss of power or even ouster from office.
2. Consequences in Other Countries:
   The consequences of water scarcity have been devastating in many parts of the world:
• Cape Town, South Africa nearly experienced "Day Zero" in 2018, where the city ran out of water, leading to widespread panic, government instability, and economic disruptions.
• Syria's water crisis has contributed to civil unrest, and droughts have exacerbated tensions, eventually fueling part of the civil war.
• In India, several states face regular water shortages, resulting in migration, conflicts, and mass protests.
• Brazil's water crisis in 2015-2016 led to significant water rationing and triggered massive protests over government mismanagement.

These cases show that a water crisis doesn't just cause economic damage; it erodes trust in government, leads to social unrest, and can destabilize governments.

1. Prioritizing Water Security Over Other Projects:
   Mauritius must get its priorities right. While projects like roads and smart cities are important for development, nothing is more essential than water security. Without water, nothing else matters. The population will not be able to function, and the country's survival will be at risk. Instead of focusing on aesthetic and non-urgent projects, Mauritius should prioritize the construction of desalination plants and ensure a guaranteed supply of water. Investing in infrastructure for water supply should be the first priority to safeguard the nation’s future and ensure the stability of the economy and society.
2. Consequences for the Tourism Industry:
   The tourism industry is one of Mauritius' largest revenue generators. With a population of about 1.2 million people and over 1 million tourists arriving annually, the country faces a serious crisis if water supplies dry up. The lack of water will directly impact the hotels, restaurants, and tourist services, forcing them to close or operate at reduced capacity. Water is essential for cooking, cleaning, bathing, and maintaining facilities. If water is unavailable, tourists will avoid visiting, and the country could face a dramatic drop in international arrivals, leading to economic collapse in the tourism sector.

More than 2 million people (residents and tourists combined) depend on the water supply in Mauritius, and without a stable source of water, this industry, which constitutes a major part of the national economy, will be severely affected. Loss of tourism revenue will lead to widespread job losses and economic contraction, further complicating an already dire situation.

Conclusion:

Mauritius is at a critical juncture in securing its water supply. Failure to act immediately on desalination projects and ensure a guaranteed water supply will lead to a collapse of essential services and create widespread civil unrest. The ruling class must realize that water security is not negotiable—it is vital for survival. With the tourism industry also at risk, the government must ensure that water projects take precedence over all other development plans to avoid a national catastrophe.

(27)

Soman Ragavan : 

Thank you very much. Goodbye for now.

(28)

ChatGPT :

You're welcome, Soman! Feel free to reach out whenever you'd like. Goodbye for now!

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Full acknowledgements are made to the authors, publishers and rights-holders for materials quoted).

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